Italy's Ministry of Health has published its 2024 Report on NHS staffing — and for the first time in years it brings encouraging news: hirings have exceeded departures.[1] Simultaneously, the Bernini decree brings medicine places to 27,000 for 2026 — an all-time record, 3,000 more than the previous year.[2] Generational renewal has begun. But the data also says something else that is important not to ignore: the structural gap — the difference between available and needed physicians — will not close before 2033-2036. At best.
The numbers of generational renewal — what 2026 data says
27,000 medicine places 2026 (+3,000 vs 2025)
The Bernini decree brings medicine places to 27,000 for 2026 — an all-time high. Clear signal: the Ministry understands that the shortage is structural. But new enrolees will enter the NHS in 11-13 years.
Hirings > departures for the first time
The Ministry's 2024 Report certifies that NHS hirings have exceeded departures. A historic trend reversal. But the delta is still small compared to the accumulated gap.
5,700 GPs missing today (GIMBE)
The deficit of general practitioners is structural: 5,700 units short of need. Shortages in 18 out of 20 regions. Average 1,383 patients per physician, with peaks above 1,500 in the South.
Estimated gap: 10+ years
Even with 27,000 places/year, new physicians reach the NHS after specialisation. The structural gap in general medicine is estimated to close between 2033 and 2036 — at best.
Key numbers of Italian physician generational renewal — August 2026
The maths of renewal
With 27,000 medicine places for 2026, and an 11-year training pathway (6 degree + 5 specialisation), this year's new enrolees will enter the NHS between 2037 and 2038. Meanwhile, between 2026 and 2033, over 40,000 physicians currently in service are expected to reach retirement age. The maths is unforgiving: even with the record in medical school entries, the net balance over the next 7-8 years will likely be negative.
For the physician who is today between 35 and 55 years old, the message is clear: the shortage will remain structural throughout the most intense part of their career. More patients per physician, longer waiting lists, growing pressure.
In this context, the question is not "will things improve?" (probably yes, but slowly). The question is: "what can I do today to maintain care quality without burning out?"
The generational gap in Italian medicine is not solved with an app. But a physician who reclaims 4 hours per day on documentation is one who can follow more patients, reduce their personal waiting lists, and reach the end of the week with lower burnout. In the context of structural shortage, this is not a detail — it is one of the few concrete levers available today.
See also our articles on Italian physician burnout, on waiting lists in Italy and on the documentation time calculation.
How many physicians are missing in Italy today?
It depends on the specialty and region. For general practitioners, the GIMBE Foundation estimates a shortage of approximately 5,700 units relative to national need. The shortage is particularly acute in 18 out of 20 regions, with peaks in the South. For hospital physicians, AGENAS data shows significant shortages in emergency medicine, anaesthesia, psychiatry and internal medicine. Total vacancies in the NHS exceed 30,000 units by some estimates.
Will the increase to 27,000 medicine places resolve the shortage?
Not in the short term. A medical graduate today enters the NHS after 6 years of degree + 5 years of specialisation = 11 years. The 27,000 enrolees of 2026 will be specialists between 2037 and 2038. Meanwhile, the shortage deepens further due to the wave of retirements expected between 2026 and 2033 (43% of physicians are over 55). Increasing places is the right decision, but it does not solve the problem over the next 10 years.
What does generational renewal mean for physicians currently in practice?
For physicians in practice over the next 10 years it means a growing care burden. With fewer colleagues, more patients per physician, longer waiting lists. In this context, every tool that increases clinical efficiency — without compromising care quality — is not a luxury, it is a necessity. Automatic documentation, teleconsultation, AI triage systems are concrete levers to multiply individual professional capacity without increasing burnout.
Physicians in practice today carry the weight of the generational gap for the next 10 years. Clinovus AI does not solve the shortage — but returns 4 hours per day taken by documentation, to dedicate to patients.
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